Gut feelings and voting intent – what can we learn?

As the UK reflects on the last general election, a significant shift in voter behaviour has become evident. Many lifelong Conservative voters cast their ballots elsewhere, resulting in many traditionally blue seats turning red, yellow or green and marking a profound change in the political landscape. The rise of Reform is showing also that these shifts are definitely not permanent.

People, who have historically voted for the Tories out of loyalty or habit, found themselves considering other parties for the first time. In the general election, we saw this discontent with the Conservative party manifest in a shift towards alternative political options, highlighting a fundamental truth about human behaviour: opinions are not fixed. They are malleable and can be influenced by social influence and evolving values.

Another noteworthy outcome from the election was the performance of the Reform party, which emerged as a significant opposition in many constituencies. This success underscores the diminishing importance of party loyalty, suggesting a growing willingness among voters to explore new political affiliations.

Research emphasises the importance of recognising that people’s values and opinions can change over time. This plasticity* is crucial for political strategists and businesses alike. The same principles apply to all types of behaviour, including consumer behaviour, where shifting opinions can impact purchasing decisions.

*Note: Plasticity, or neuroplasticity, describes how experiences actually reorganise neural pathways in the brain creating long lasting functional changes in the brain.

Can you measure a change of values?

Back in 2014, Mindlab conducted a study to explore Britain’s deeper, often unspoken, dislike and distrust of Russia. Using a test of implicit, subconscious attitudes, researchers examined the nation’s views on Russia before and after the Winter Olympics in Sochi, and following the Crimean referendum. This is a compelling case of how behaviour and attitudes can evolve due to social factors.

Explicit responses consistently showed mild negativity towards Russia, peaking after the Crimean takeover. However, implicit attitudes revealed a much stronger subconscious dislike. The Olympics temporarily improved subconscious feelings towards Russia, but this was reversed by the events in Crimea.

Publicly expressed attitudes remained negative throughout, but only with the implicit test were we able to see the positive impact of the Olympics and the subsequent negative shift due to Crimea. This study demonstrated the sensitivity of implicit testing in detecting subtle attitude changes. Simply asking people how they feel would have overlooked these subconscious shifts triggered by significant events.

Polling and implicit testing

Labour’s victory in the election was anticipated, with polls consistently predicting a landslide. However, some constituencies were closely contested, such as Chelsea and Fulham, where Labour won by 152 votes.

These cases are similar to that of the Scottish Referendum, where the results could have swung in either direction. Mindlab conducted a study designed to measure voting intentions before the referendum, highlighting the potential of implicit testing in predicting results. Instead of solely asking participants about their preferences, the study included an implicit test to gauge their positive feelings toward Scotland and the UK. After the referendum, respondents were asked how they actually voted.

The findings revealed that the explicit (forced choice) method accurately predicted the voting behaviour of 82% of participants. When explicit questions allowed for an ‘unsure’ option, they accurately predicted 91% of those who chose either ‘stay’ or ‘leave,’ though no prediction was made for undecided voters. The implicit method, however, showed even higher accuracy, predicting the voting behaviour of 92% of participants.

Implicit testing was able to categorise people into more nuanced groups than simple yes/no/unsure questions and predicted voting behaviour more accurately than explicit questions. This suggests that, if conducted properly, implicit testing could provide more accurate voting predictions than traditional polling methods and hold real value in determining the likely voting outcomes of the undecided.

Implicit testing measures people’s gut feelings and intuitive perceptions and is useful when you need to understand where brands, people and concepts sit in the minds of your audience. This is particularly useful in rapidly changing market conditions where external events change our gut feelings and people are unable to effectively articulate this.

By Jasmin Dawson